This doesn’t look like a carrier-edge issue it’s more likely the transfer flow breaking before the outbound leg is actually created.
Since your logs stop right after “Transfer initiated” and there’s no SIP activity, the tool is being acknowledged but not fully executed. That usually points to an intermittent orchestration or state issue (e.g., race condition, call context ending early, or the session closing before the dial is triggered).
The fact that it works ~1/5 times reinforces that it’s not a hard config error but something timing-related.
I’d suggest checking whether the call session is still active at the moment of transfer and if there are any async timeouts or interruptions right after the tool call. Adding a slight delay or confirmation step before ending the assistant flow can sometimes stabilize it.
If you want, I can help review your transfer flow and pinpoint where it’s dropping @michaelsimpson